EMERGENCY 10-DAY GROUNDSTOP - El Paso International Airport

Written By Scott Witner

National Security & Domestic Threat Analysis

Date: February 11, 2026
Classification: Unclassified // Open Source Analysis

⚠ DEVELOPING SITUATION - DOCUMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NEW INTELLIGENCE EMERGES

🔴 MAJOR UPDATE - February 11, 2026

FAA LIFTS EL PASO FLIGHT RESTRICTION EARLY AFTER US DISABLES MEXICAN CARTEL DRONES

The Federal Aviation Administration lifted the El Paso airspace restriction on February 11, 2026, approximately 8 days earlier than the originally scheduled February 20 end date. According to official statements, the early termination followed successful U.S. military operations to disable Mexican cartel drones that had "breached U.S. airspace."

Key Developments:

  • Airspace reopened February 12, 2026

  • FAA cites "neutralization of aerial threat" as reason for early lift

  • U.S. military confirmed operations against cartel drone infrastructure

  • Mexican cartel drones confirmed to have breached U.S. airspace

  • No casualties or damage to civilian aircraft reported

  • El Paso International Airport resumed normal operations

Analysis Confirmation: This development validates Scenario 1 (Imminent Aerial Attack Threat) and Scenario 3 (Counter-Surveillance Operation) as assessed in this document. The specific mention of cartel drones breaching U.S. airspace confirms the weaponized drone threat vector identified as the critical underreported element of this situation.

Source: FOX Business

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

On February 10, 2026 at 11:30 PM MST, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an unprecedented 10-day total airspace closure over El Paso International Airport and surrounding areas of southern New Mexico. This action represents the first extended closure of airspace over a major U.S. city for security reasons since September 11, 2001.

Key Facts:

  • Designation: National Defense Airspace

  • Duration: February 10, 2026 (11:30 PM MST) through February 20, 2026 (11:30 PM MST)

  • Scope: All commercial, cargo, general aviation, and medical evacuation flights grounded

  • Airspace Covered: 10-nautical-mile radius, ground to 17,000 feet

  • Notice Period: Airport and air traffic control given 30-60 minutes warning

  • Authority to Use Deadly Force: Explicitly authorized against non-compliant aircraft

UNPRECEDENTED NATURE OF THE ACTION

Historical Context

According to aviation and security experts, an extended airspace closure of this magnitude over a major U.S. city for national security reasons has not occurred since the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Local officials with knowledge of aviation security operations stated they have never witnessed such an action in their careers.

Operational Characteristics

The operation demonstrates several characteristics that distinguish it from routine temporary flight restrictions:

  • Minimal advance notification (30-60 minutes to airport authorities)

  • Total closure including emergency medical evacuation flights

  • Extended 10-day duration with no explanation provided

  • Explicit authorization for deadly force against violating aircraft

  • Classification as 'National Defense Airspace'

STRATEGIC LOCATION ANALYSIS

Fort Bliss Military Complex

Fort Bliss is one of the largest U.S. Army installations in the United States, comprising approximately 1.12 million acres across Texas and New Mexico. Key resident units include:

  • 1st Armored Division ('Old Ironsides') - largest resident unit

  • 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Command

  • 11th Air Defense Artillery Brigade

  • 402nd Field Artillery Brigade

  • Biggs Army Airfield (military airbase)

  • Approximately 90,000 soldiers and family members

El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC)

CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE ASSET: The El Paso Intelligence Center is housed within Biggs Army Airfield at Fort Bliss. EPIC is a federal tactical operational intelligence center that serves as the U.S. government's primary information-gathering nerve center for the war on drugs and border security operations.

EPIC Mission & Capabilities:

  • Led by Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA)

  • Comprises 21 participating federal agencies including CIA, FBI, IRS, Coast Guard, DHS

  • Tracks movement of drugs, weapons, illegal aliens, currency, and contraband

  • Operates 24/7 watch center with real-time intelligence support

  • Houses sophisticated satellite and drone tracking systems

  • Primary intelligence hub for Southwest border operations

  • Recently hosted joint training with Pentagon and Mexican security forces on cartel operations

White Sands Missile Range

Located 45 miles north of El Paso, White Sands is America's premier military test range:

  • 3,200 square miles - largest military installation in the United States

  • Conducts over 3,000 missile and weapons tests annually

  • Supports Army, Navy, Air Force testing operations

  • Air defense and missile defense system testing

  • Recent testing (Feb 9, 2026): Extended Range GMLRS with 150km strike capability

Border Security Zone

In May 2025, the Department of Defense established a National Defense Area adjacent to Fort Bliss as part of expanded border security operations. This military zone allows troops to detain and search anyone found trespassing, effectively extending military jurisdiction to the border region.

GEOPOLITICAL & OPERATIONAL CONTEXT

Trump Administration Cartel Policy

Recent Statements and Actions:

  • January 2026: President Trump stated 'we are going to start now hitting land, with regard to the cartels' in Mexico

  • Trump claimed U.S. forces 'knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water' through Caribbean strikes

  • February 2025: Designated six Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs)

  • August 2025: Signed classified order authorizing military action against cartels

  • December 2025: Designated fentanyl as a 'weapon of mass destruction'

  • January 2026: U.S. military operation captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro

  • U.S. has conducted 35 known strikes on alleged drug boats in Caribbean, killing 115 individuals

Mexican Government Response

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has:

  • Categorically rejected any U.S. military intervention on Mexican soil

  • Stated: 'Sovereignty is not for sale'

  • Passed constitutional reforms to strengthen protections against unauthorized foreign operations

  • Transferred 92 cartel members to U.S. custody in three operations (Feb, Aug 2025, Jan 2026)

  • Condemned U.S. capture of Maduro and reaffirmed Mexican sovereignty

EMERGING THREAT ASSESSMENT: CARTEL DRONE OPERATIONS

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: This represents a potentially significant threat vector that mainstream media has not adequately covered in relation to the El Paso groundstop.

Scale of Drone Activity

  • 60,000 cartel drone flights detected within 500 meters of U.S. border (July-Dec 2024)

  • 27,000 unique remote-controlled aircraft identified

  • Average of 328 Mexican drones approaching U.S. border daily

  • Over 1,000 drones crossing border monthly (per U.S. Northern Command)

  • Most flights occur 8 PM - 4 AM under cover of darkness

Drone Capabilities and Usage

  • Real-time surveillance of U.S. Border Patrol movements

  • Drug and contraband smuggling (especially fentanyl)

  • Guiding migrants across border to avoid detection

  • Mapping security vulnerabilities and response times

  • Flying at restricted altitudes (400+ feet) for enhanced surveillance

Weaponized Drone Threat

CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE: Mexican cartels have demonstrated both capability and willingness to conduct explosive drone attacks:

  • 77 drone bombings recorded in Mexico in 2024 (up from 35 in 2023)

  • January 2024: Cartel drone attack injured Mexican National Guard troops in Chihuahua

  • August 2024: Two Mexican soldiers killed by drone-dropped explosives in Michoacan

  • October 2025: Explosive drone attack on government building in Tijuana

  • February 2025: Federal intelligence warned cartels authorized explosive drone attacks against U.S. agents at southern border

  • Intelligence reports indicate cartel plans to use 'kamikaze drones' equipped with explosives to target Border Patrol and military personnel

El Paso Sector Specific Intelligence

  • El Paso Border Patrol: 'We see the drones every day' - used to identify where authorities are positioned

  • Three major cartel organizations operate in El Paso-Juarez-New Mexico region with defined territories

  • Drones have been used by local gangs to air-drop drugs in El Paso neighborhoods

  • September 2024: Two drone operators arrested near border wall in Juarez on U.S. intelligence tip

  • February 2026: New Mexico and Chihuahua officials held emergency meeting on cartel drone threats (5 days before groundstop)

Aviation Threat Assessment

Fort Bliss has been designated a 'No Drone Zone' by the FAA, extending 400 feet beyond the lateral edges of the military reservation. This designation indicates ongoing concern about unauthorized aerial activity near the installation and its sensitive intelligence facilities, particularly EPIC.

The proximity of cartel-controlled territory across the Rio Grande, combined with documented cartel surveillance of U.S. military and law enforcement positions, creates a credible threat scenario where hostile actors could target:

  • Commercial aircraft on approach/departure

  • Military operations at Biggs Army Airfield

  • Intelligence operations at EPIC

  • Ground forces and civilian populations

POTENTIAL THREAT SCENARIOS

Based on available intelligence and the extraordinary nature of the response, several scenarios warrant consideration:

Scenario 1: Imminent Aerial Attack Threat

Intelligence may indicate credible threat of cartel drone attack on:

  • Commercial aircraft (potentially with explosives or to create incident forcing emergency response)

  • Military facilities at Fort Bliss

  • EPIC intelligence center (high-value target for cartels)

  • Airspace closure prevents civilian aircraft from becoming collateral damage or targets of opportunity

Scenario 2: Preemptive Military Operation

Possible preparation for U.S. military action in/near Mexico:

  • First implementation of Trump's 'hitting land' threat against cartels

  • Airspace closure provides operational security for staging or executing cross-border operations

  • 10-day window allows for multi-phase operation

  • Timing follows recent Pentagon-DEA-Mexico training at EPIC and escalating rhetoric

Scenario 3: Counter-Surveillance Operation

Large-scale operation to:

  • Deploy counter-drone systems without commercial aircraft interference

  • Test or deploy new electronic warfare/counter-UAS capabilities

  • Eliminate cartel surveillance capabilities in preparation for future operations

  • Clear airspace allows unrestricted counter-drone operations

Scenario 4: High-Value Target Operation

Intelligence-driven operation targeting specific cartel leadership or infrastructure:

  • Raid or strike on high-value target in Juarez or nearby locations

  • Seizure of major cartel assets or weapons cache

  • Capture operation similar to Maduro seizure

  • Airspace closure prevents escape by air and eliminates surveillance of operation

Scenario 5: Defense of Critical Infrastructure

Response to specific intelligence regarding:

  • Planned attack on White Sands Missile Range (recent advanced weapons testing)

  • Threat to EPIC operations or personnel

  • Sabotage attempt on military equipment or weapons systems

  • Espionage operation targeting classified military activities

CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE GAPS

The following information remains unknown and would significantly aid threat assessment:

Operational Questions:

  • What specific intelligence triggered this action?

  • Which federal agency or military command requested the closure?

  • Are similar closures being considered or implemented at other border locations?

  • What assets or personnel have been moved to the area?

  • Has White House or DOD issued classified guidance to military commanders?

  • Is there elevated DEFCON status or specific military readiness posture change?

Threat-Specific Questions:

  • Has there been recent drone activity increase near El Paso?

  • Were weaponized drones detected or intercepted?

  • Has cartel communications been intercepted indicating planned attack?

  • Are there credible human intelligence (HUMINT) sources indicating imminent threat?

  • Has Mexico provided intelligence or warning?

Strategic Questions:

  • Is this related to upcoming USMCA review negotiations?

  • Could this be leverage in bilateral discussions with Mexico?

  • Is there coordination with other Five Eyes intelligence partners?

  • What is the end-state objective of this operation?

KEY ANALYTICAL OBSERVATIONS

Convergence of Multiple Factors:

  • Timing coincides with escalating Trump administration rhetoric about land operations against cartels

  • Recent joint training at EPIC between Pentagon, DEA, and Mexican forces on cartel operations

  • Documented surge in weaponized drone attacks by cartels in Mexico

  • Recent advanced weapons testing at White Sands (Extended Range GMLRS, Feb 9)

  • Emergency meeting on cartel drones held 5 days before groundstop

Unusual Operational Security Measures:

  • 30-60 minute notice is insufficient for routine security measures - indicates sudden threat assessment change

  • Complete absence of official explanation suggests classified intelligence

  • Even FAA Special Operations Support Center staff claim no knowledge of reasons

  • Local law enforcement and airport officials left uninformed

Airspace Closure Characteristics:

  • 10-day duration suggests either: extended operation timeframe OR uncertain threat duration

  • Ground-to-17,000-feet coverage eliminates ALL aircraft activity in zone

  • Mexican airspace specifically excluded - indicates not Mexico cooperation issue

  • Santa Teresa airport (New Mexico) excluded despite proximity

CONCLUSIONS AND ASSESSMENT

This unprecedented 10-day airspace closure over El Paso represents one of the most significant domestic security actions since 9/11. The convergence of multiple factors - escalating cartel drone threats, Trump administration military posture toward cartels, presence of critical intelligence infrastructure (EPIC), and recent weapons testing at White Sands - suggests a credible and specific threat assessment drove this decision.

Most Likely Scenario:

Based on available intelligence, the most probable explanation involves intelligence indicating an imminent cartel drone threat against U.S. military or intelligence assets, potentially combined with preparation for counter-drone operations or preemptive action against cartel drone capabilities. The timing, duration, and complete airspace closure all point to a specific aerial threat that required immediate mitigation.

Alternative High-Probability Scenario:

This could represent the first phase of implementing Trump's threatened land operations against cartels. The airspace closure would provide operational security for staging forces, conducting reconnaissance, or executing initial strikes while preventing cartel surveillance.

POST-OPERATION ASSESSMENT (February 11, 2026)

The early termination of the airspace closure and official confirmation of cartel drone operations validates several key assessments made in this analysis:

Confirmed Threat Vector:

  • Cartel drones did breach U.S. airspace, confirming the imminent threat scenario

  • The 60,000+ drone flights detected in 2024 represented a precursor to more aggressive operations

  • Weaponized drone capability demonstrated by cartels in Mexico translated to direct threat against U.S. territory

SOURCE DOCUMENTATION

The following sources were consulted in the preparation of this analysis. All links were active as of February 11, 2026.

Primary Sources - El Paso Groundstop

Fort Bliss, Biggs Army Airfield & EPIC Intelligence Center

White Sands Missile Range

Trump Administration Cartel Policy & Military Action

Cartel Drone Threat Intelligence


Document prepared: February 11, 2026
Classification: Unclassified // Open Source Intelligence
Analysis based on publicly available information
This document will be updated as new information emerges

Scott Witner
Next

Iran Nuclear Talks: Diplomacy or Deception?